Women’s World Cup Pool

womensworldcup_vintage

Results (italicized teams are still active)
$30 – United States
$15 –  Japan
$10 – England, Germany
$6 – Ecuador
$5 – Australia, Canada, China, France
$3 – Brazil
$2 – Cameroon, Norway, South Korea
$1 – Colombia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden
$0 – Costa Rica, Côte d’Ivoire, Mexico, New Zealand, Nigeria, Spain, Thailand

Payout (and Proft/Loss)
Dani: $30 ($16)
Kirk: $10 ($6)
Matty: $15 ($3) PAID
Justin: $10 ($3)
Kevin: $7 (even) PAID
Nick: $11 (-$1)
Chris: $2 (-$2) PAID
Garth: $1 (-$3) PAID
Andrew: $10 (-$4)
Greg: $3 (-$4) PAID
Kendall: $1 (-$6) PAID
Michael: $4 (-$8) PAID

UPDATE (6 July): Well, it’s all over but the paying. Congratulations to Dani for believing in the US. Be on the lookout for me, and I’ll do the same for you. Oh, and enjoy the Gold Cup, which I think starts up tomorrow (the US plays at 8:30 PM).

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UPDATE (1 July): That was one of the most painful endings to a game I’ve ever seen. It’s down to Dani and Matty now; best of luck to both of them.  (OK, in truth I have a pretty strong preference about the final game, but it’s not about you guys.) Hope everyone has enjoyed the soccer; it’s been a very good tournament, I thought. Keep an eye out for me and get your money back.

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UPDATE (29 June): It’s down to the end of things. With only Justin, Matty, Andrew, and Dani left, here’s where we stand: Kirk is the big winner other than, well, the big winner. By taking two minnows to the quarterfinals, he’s ensured he will be at least the third biggest winner. In fact, he’s all but ensured himself the second place spot, unless England beats Japan but loses in the final. $6 isn’t a grand payout, but it’s better than most of us. I’ll try to catch up with most of you at soccer or around town to pay up. And for the the four of you still in the hunt, best of luck.

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UPDATE (24 June): Ecuador is set at $6, and our quarterfinal teams are set. Look for the next update on Saturday morning, following two BIG games.

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UPDATE (23 June): Justin and Dani stayed alive, as Greg joins those of us on the sidelines after watching both his teams fall in a single evening. Also, I was completely wrong about Ecuador’s potential payouts, and since I’ve been bad with the maths before, I’m showing my work here to give folks a chance to correct me. With a $19 pot to pay out Round of 16 finishers, $12 is already gone. That means that even before last night’s games, Nick was assured at least $1. With the United States advancing, that means Ecuador will pull in either $4 or $6 depending on the outcome of Japan – Nehterlands. OK, that’s it for now. Best of luck to Matty and Michael, one of whom will be finished after tonight’s game.

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UPDATE (22 June): Chris and I have now joined Kendall on the sidelines (at least I got a dollar back), while Michael will be hoping that a Netherlands upset can keep him in the hunt. With Canada’s victory, Kevin has now broken even and will be looking for our northern neighbors to take him into the money.

Kirk and Greg still have two teams active, though both of Greg’s teams will be playing this evening. Kirk, in fact, has already more than doubled his money, which is not too shabby.

And then there is Nick, with France advancing in glorious style and Ecuador still looking likely to pay off. Brazil’s loss knocked Ecaudor’s pay out down to $4, and Nick will be hoping that the US and Japan win to keep that pay out in tact (a loss by either will cost him another $3; a loss by both will actually put our betting pool in the red, so I guess Nick isn’t the only one rooting for overdogs).

Enjoy the US game tonight, and I’ll have another update ready tomorrow.

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UPDATE (21 June): Kirk is the first person in the money, and Kendall is the first one out (though he does get $1 back). Three of the four $5 squads will be looking to advance today, so we’ll no a lot more by this evening.

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UPDATE (19 June): So it looks like the handicappers did a reasonable job.  All of the expensive teams plus the highest-rated $5 team topped their groups, and the other three $5 sides advanced, though Sweden was pipped by Australia to a second place finish.

So all the big spenders are still in the hunt, though just over half of them are now dependent on that team to cover an additional $2. Michael still has both Brazil and Netherlands, and Nick has France live and Ecuador waiting to see how much money is left over for the loser’s pot. He’ll be rooting for all the favorites (except, probably, for Germany) to advance in order to increase his winnings. Amongst $5 holders, Kevin (Canada and Cameroon) and Greg (Norway and Colombia) still have hopes for two teams to advance. Kendall will need Sweden can beat the United States to give him a chance of covering his costs.

Finally, Kirk still has two teams in and has already covered his $4 investment. He’ll be looking for either Australia or China to advance to put him in the money.

That about covers it. Looking forward to the round of 16, and best of luck to everyone not playing Switzerland. See you again at the quarterfinals.

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UPDATE (16 June): With the first two groups finished, no one is absolutely in the money, though Kirk has at least broken even with China.

I’m sure all of you will be watching today’s big game; I’m referring, of course, to Ecuador – Japan. With Japan only needing a tie to clinch the group, I’ll be hoping for the only possible result to steal worst team of the tournament away from Nick. That means that Justin’s New Zealand is the only team absolutely assured of losing money (though I don’t think Chris is very confident about Thailand’s chances of getting through).

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UPDATE (14 June): Well, two rounds of games see only Matty’s Japan and Michael’s Brazil with all six points. At the other end of the tables, all credit goes to Nick’s Ecuador for taking the bull by the horns and taking a decisive lead in the race to the bottom (remember how disappointed Nick was to be “stuck” with that final pick?) My Ivory Coast is still in there with a shout, but it will take a lot of bad luck to catch the South American side.

The final round of games start tomorrow, and at the end of the round I’ll be posting results (as if you can’t figure them out yourself). If you’re interested in what I have to say about the US-Sweden game, I’ll be posting my thoughts on that game later today.  Take care, and enjoy the games.

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UPDATE (11 June): With the first round of games finished, Andrew must be feeling pretty good about his German investment.  At the other end of the table, my Côte d’Ivoire is well-placed with a -10 GD, but don’t over Nick’s Ecuador, who managed to ship 6 to Cameroon, with Japan and Switzerland still to come. Probably the key game in that run will be today’s Côte d’Ivoire – Thailand match. If Côte d’Ivoire can lose that one, they will probably have last place all but locked down; but if not, look for Chris’s Thailand, who have a none-to-shabby GD of -4 themselves to give Ecuador a run for their money.

Everyone is paid up, with the exception of Dani’s US money.  Just so we’re all on the same page, here’s who has whom:

Andrew: Costa Rica, Germany
Chris: South Korea, Thailand
Dani: Nigeria, United States
Garth: Côte d’Ivoire, Switzerland
Greg: Colombia, Norway
Kendall: Spain, Sweden
Kevin: Cameroon, Canada
Kirk: Australia, China
Justin: England, New Zealand
Matty: Japan, Mexico
Michael: Brazil, Netherlands
Nick: Ecuador, France

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Welcome to our extremely small stakes pool designed to make the Women’s World Cup just a bit more exciting. You can’t win more than $28, and you can’t lose more than $12. If you’re still interested in playing, here’s what you need to do:

1. Come to the 602 Club before the Champions League final, for our drawing at 1:00 PM. If you don’t know where the 602 Club is, this probably isn’t the pool for you. If it is the pool for you, but you really don’t know where to go, email me. If you want to be fully prepared, bring two $5s and two $1s.

2. Selection order will be determined randomly. Each participant can pick from among the remaining available teams. If you can’t make up your mind, a team will be selected randomly for you.  Teams are priced roughly according to bookmakers’ odds, as follows:

Price by Team:
$12 – USA, Germany
$10 – France, Brazil, Japan
$5 – Canada, Sweden, England, Norway
$2 – Everyone Else*

3. Watch the Women’s World Cup! If you’re team gets out of the first round, or is the worst** of the teams failing to advance from the group stage, you’re in the money, as follows:

Pay Out:
Winner: $30
Finalist: $15
Semifinalists: $10
Quarterfinalists: $5
Finish 1st in Group: $3
Finish 2nd in Group: $2
Finish 3rd in Group but Advance: $1 (4 of 6 3rd place finishers advance)
Worst Team in the Tournament**: Remainder of the Pot, $0-$7

*Everyone else, in rough order of odds to win (see odds makers and Nate Silver below), is: Australia, China, Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, New Zealand, Nigeria, Mexico, Columbia, Cameroon, Ecuador, Côte d’Ivoire, Costa Rica, and Thailand.

**Worst team is determined by 1) fewest points, 2) worst goal differential, 3) fewest goals scored. If still tied, the teams will split the remaining prize money.

If you care enough, I’m sure you can find your own odd making sites, but I looked at the lines compiled by Oddschecker in setting up the prices for teams.

If you’re interested, you can also check out what Nate Silver has to say about it (or consult his full interactive model).  Last summer, he gave Brazil a 45% chance of winning the World Cup, so you can definitely trust him.  (Yes, that’s a cheap shot; I couldn’t resist.)

Hope to see you on Saturday at the 602 Club for our drawing and the Champions League final.

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