Midway through the first half of the new Swiss model Champions League league phase seems like a good time to reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of this newly-structured competition, at least in comparison to the group stage it has replaced. Overall, I will confess, my response has been mostly favorable.
As a bias check, I did a comparison between the opening half of last year’s group stage with the opening half of this year’s league phase. This proved useful, as it showed that my sense that the new league phase had produced more “big” games than the group stages (at least last year’s group stage) was false. In both cases, there were about 5 “big” games per matchday—with “big” games defined not by the actual outcome of the games but instead by whether or not the match involved two major teams (and thus would be an exciting prospect pre-match).
Having said that, my suspicion is that the second half of the league phase will, in fact, produce more excitement, for two reasons. The first is that a group stage will simply reproduce the reverse fixtures of its first half as the “big” games of its second half. Of course, events will make some other games into major fixtures because of the possibilities of underdog promotions and major team eliminations; but those events should also happen in the league phase, as Stade Brestois and LOSC Lille have already demonstrated.
Where the league phase is likely to outperform the group stage second half is by producing a set of new and different match-ups in the “big” games of its second half. This diversity should make for a more interesting mix of games than provided by a group stage. Real Madrid, for instance, will not simply replay Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund again; they will instead play Liverpool and Atalanta (as well as RB Salzburg and 4th place Stade Brestois, neither “big” games by my definition, but not a bad line-up).
In addition, the league structure should reduce the number of dead rubbers that group stages inevitably produce. Because every team will be competing against the entire field rather than just three other teams, it will be more difficult for teams to write off games as irrelevant to their advancement and/or positioning in the next round. That is probably a bad thing for the already overworked players on top teams, but not necessarily for fans.
A final question that’s less clear to me is whether this structure will reduce or increase the number of underdog stories. I would be surprised if the number of underdogs increased overall because of the need to succeed against the entire league rather than just 3 other teams. Having said that, I think it’s possible that the numbers may run fairly close. Moreover, I suspect that the underdogs who do advance will be more durable because of the need to succeed against the full field of play. The current positions of Sporting Club Portugal (Lisbon), AS Monaco, and Stade Brestois in the top four is promising, to say the least.
In any case, those are my initial thoughts on the Swiss model. I’d love to hear your thoughts as well in the comments. Cheers!
Appendix: “Big” Games in the First Half of the Group Stage/League Phase
2023-2024 Champion League Group Stage, Games 1-3 of 6
9/19 Lazio 1 – Athletic Madrid 1; AC Milan 0 – Newcastle United 0; Paris Saint-Germain 2 – Borussia Dortmund 0.
9/20 Bayern 4 – Manchester United 3; Real Sociedad 1 – Inter-Milan 1.
10/3 Napoli 3 – Real Madrid 2.
10/4 RB Leipzig 1 – Manchester City 3; Borussia Dortmund 0 – AC Milan 0; Newcastle United 4 – Paris Saint-Germain 1.
10/24 none
10/25 Paris Saint-Germain 3 – AC Milan 0; Newcastle United 0 – Borussia Dortmund 1.
2024-2025 Champions League, League Phase, Games 1-4 of 8
Teams from Pot 1 unless otherwise identified.
9/17 AC Milan 1 [P2] – Liverpool 3; Real Madrid 3 – Stuttgart 1 [P4].
9/18 Manchester City 0 – Inter-Milan 0; Paris Saint-Germain 1 – Girona 0 [P4].
9/19 Monaco 2 [P4] – Barcelona 0; Atalanta 0 [P2] – Arsenal 0 [P2]; Atlético Madrid 2 [P2] – RB Leipzig 1.
10/1 Arsenal 2 [P2]– Paris Saint-Germain 0; Bayer Leverkusen 1 [P2] – AC Milan 0 [P2].
10/2 Aston Villa 1 [P4] – Bayern Munich 0; RB Leipzig 2 – Juventus 3 [P2].
10/22 Juventus 0 [P2] – Stuttgart 1 [P4]; Real Madrid 5 – Borussia Dortmand 2.
10/23 Barcelona 4 – Bayern Munich 1; RB Leipzig 0 – Liverpool 1.
11/5 Liverpool 4 – Bayer Leverkusen 0 [P2]; Real Madrid 1 – AC Milan 3 [P2].11/6 Inter-Milan 1 – Arsenal 0 [P2]; Paris Saint-Germain 1- Atlético Madrid 2 [P2]; Stuttgart 0 [P4] – Atalanta 2 [P2].
Stoopid American 